Friday, March 9, 2012

Does OPEC Matter?

I don't think I could have picked a better first article to read pertaining to my thesis other than Robert Kaufmann's "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices." Kaufmann uses the application of ordinary least squares (OLS) to test his hypothesis which is quite similar to mine: An econometric analysis indicates that there is a statistically significant relationship among real oil prices and OPEC production methods.
In this article, Kaufmann sets up an estimation model using a dependent variable, Price, and outcome variables which represent market conditions, such as capacity utilization by OPEC, quotas relating to OPEC production, OECD stocks of crude oil and an interesting variable labeled cheat. The cheat variable represents the amount of production by a particular OPEC member that exceeds there quota set by OPEC. Although Kaufmann's main focus in the article related to OPEC and the power they hold when determining oil prices, he did briefly elaborate on how non-OPEC members had an effect on the price of oil.
Before reading this article, I was uncertain if I would actually be able to find a substantial amount of research relating to my thesis. It seems as if most analysts and economists that conduct research on oil markets tend to focus on OPEC's tendencies rather than non-OPEC members. I believe this could affect my thesis because I may not find enough research relating to non-OPEC members.
Some aspects of this article I had not thought of before were comparing single countries of OPEC to the OPEC organization as a whole excluding the country I choose to use as the dependent variable. This could should possible dominance countries may have within the OPEC organization.
After reading this article and gaining much more knowledge in regards to my thesis, I am looking forward to reading more articles. It was exciting to come across an article that had so much relevancy to my research topic.

Kaufmann, Robert. 2004. "Does OPEC Matter? An Econometric Analysis of Oil Prices." The Energy Journal, Vol. 25, No. 4.

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